SCHOLAR ISLAND

"Could not explosives even of the existing type be guided automatically in flying machines by wireless or other rays, without a human pilot, in ceaseless procession upon a hostile city, arsenal, camp, or dockyard?"
-Winston Churchill, 1925

"Kumar Base, a bleak outpost at 16,000 feet that serves as the central supply depot for two battalions of Indian troops. Daily artillery barrages and small infantry skirmishes occasionally mushroom into full battles, but for most of this war, India and Pakistan have been mired on the ice, burning up huge amounts of resources and manpower to hold the lines at heights that reach 22,000 feet."

(see article: The Coldest War by Kevin Fedarko.Outside Mag)

"You mark my words. Don't ever forget them. Someday we' 11 have to fight them,(Russians) and it will take six years and cost us 6 million lives."

George Patton

"Having acquired a sizable nuclear arsenal, China will as I see it, nevertheless start the war by conventional or even guerilla means, hoping to make use of her colossal superiority in numbers and her experience in guerilla warfare. She will Confront the Soviet Union with the alternative of either accepting the methods of warfare chosen by herself or striking a nuclear blow and receiving one in retaliation. "

Andrei Amalrik

"And what do you think will happen? That when war breaks out, both belligerents will simply fly the purity of their ideology on their flags? And that sixty million of our fellow countrymen will allow themselves to be killed because the sacred truth is written on page 533 of Lenin and not on page 335 as our adversary claims? Surely only the very, very first of them will die for that . . "

Solzhenitsyn

A Letter to the Soviet Leaders

"Captain Jack Langtry, Troop Commander, Troop L,3 Squadron in 11 Armored Cavalry Regiment was speaking into his microphone early on the morning of 4 August 1985 as he stood on hill 402 at Wildech looking across the border zone over the hills rolling toward East German Eisenanch. In the dawn light he saw scores of armored vehicles moving rapidly towards him on both sides of the autobahn. Langtry knew what this was: the advanced guard of an attacking Soviet formation. It could not be anything else."

"Very few of the men now engulfed in the volcanic eruption of ground action on a modern battlefield had ever been exposed to anything remotely like it. The thunderous clamour, the monstrous explosions, the sheets and floods and fountains of flame and the billowing clouds of thick black smoke around them, the confusion, the bewilderment, the sickening reek of blood and high explosives, the raw uncertainty and, more than anything else, the hideous, unmanning noise-all combined to produce an almost over-powering urge to panic flight. To men in forward units the enemy seemed everywhere. Their roaring aircraft filled the sky, ripping the earth with raking cannon fire. Their tanks came on in clanging black hordes, spouting flames and thunder. The fighting vehicles of their infantry surged into and between the forward positions of the Allied defense like clattering swarms of fire breathing dragons. It looked as though nothing could stop the oncoming waves. There seemed to be no hope, no refuge anywhere. "

The Third World War Gen Sir John Hackett

& other top-ranking Nato Generals

"As we enter 1981, it is fascinating to note and ponder the new Chinese (Communist) attitude to war. World war, it seems, is no longer inevitable. This at least, is what the secretary general of the Chinese Communist Party, Hu Yaobang, said to his Spanish colleague, Santiago Carrillo, in Peking the other day. It is our view," he said, " that if only all peace-loving countries and people unite and take firm steps to curb the hegemonists' aggression and expansion, it is possible to postpone or even prevent the outbreak of a great war. On the other hand, however, if the people of the world lower their guard so that the hegemonists continuously intensify their aggressive and expansionist activities, then this situation will inevitably lead to the eventuality of a great war. " Translation: "If we all stand up to the Russians, there won't be a war. If we don't, there will."

Brian Crozier

War Clouds & Theories

Jan 23,l98l/National Review

"The bells will peal and long-haired men will dress themselves in gold-embroidered sacks and begin to pray on behalf of murder. The familiar, age-old, horrible business will recommence. The editors of newspapers will set to work to arouse hatred and murder under the guise of patriotism and will be delighted to double their sales. Manufacturers, merchants, and con- tractors for army-stores, will hurry about joyfully in expectation of doubled profits. Officials of all sorts will busy themselves in the hope of being able to steal more than usual. Army commanders will bustle here and there, drawing double pay and rations and hoping to receive various trinkets, ribbons, crosses, stripes, and stars, for murdering people. Idle ladies and gentlemen will fuss about entering their names in advance for the Red Cross and getting ready to bandage those whom their husbands and brothers are setting out to kill-imagining that they will be doing a most Christian work thereby. And hundreds of thousands of simple kindly folk, torn from peaceful toil and from their wives, mothers, and children, and with murderous weapons in their hands, will trudge wherever they may be driven, stifling the despair in their souls by songs, debauchery, and vodka. They will march, freeze, suffer from hunger, and fall ill. some will die of disease, and some will at last come to the place where men will kill them by the thousand. And they too, without themselves knowing why, will murder thousands of others whom they had never before seen, and who had neither done nor could do them any wrong."

Tolstoy

"….The coming war with Japan will not arise out of wickedness or mean-spiritedness. It will not arise because of a lack of mutual understanding. It will not arise because Japan and America are similar or different cultures. It will arise because both are reasonable nations living in a dangerous world. Each wants what the other cannot give it. Each would be willing to get out of the other’s way, but there is no means of leaving the Pacific and no means of getting out of the way of national suicide.

Thus, as with most great wars, the coming, second U.S. –Japanese war will occur in spite of the best intentions of all concerned. And one suspects, considering the greatness of these two nations and the vastness of these takes between them, that no matter who wins the next war it will not be the last. The struggle between Japan and the United States, punctuated by truces, friendships, and brutality, will shape the Pacific for generations. It will be the endless game about which the philosophers have written, the game of nations-the war of all against all."

George Friedman & Meredith Lebard

The Coming War with Japan

"Kathleen Bailey, a former assistant director of the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, has visited several biotechnology and pharmaceutical firms. She is "absolutely convinced" that a major biological arsenal could be built in a room 15-by-15 feet, with $10,000 worth of equipment."

Leonard A. Cole

The Eleventh Plague

   "But nothing caught the president's attention as much as The Cobra Event, the novel Venter had recommended and that Clinton read in early 1998. It depicted a mad scientist's determination to thin the world's population by infecting New York City with a designer pathogen. By combining smallpox, a virus similar to that of the common cold, and an insect virus that destroys nerves, the scientist invented an ideal doomsday germ- a "brainpox" that spread quickly and melted the brain."

Judith Miller & Stephen Engelberg & William Broad

Germs

   "In a startling revival of ancient bio-warfare in modern India, Kautilya's Arthashastra, compiled some twenty-three hundred years ago, became the subject of intense study by Hindu military experts and Pune University scientists in 2002. Funded by the Indian Defense Ministry, the scientists began researching Kautily's ancient "secrets of effective stealth warfare" and biochemical armaments, to use against India's modern enemies. According to reports by the BBC and other news agencies, the military scientists have begun experimenting with ancient recipes reputed to give armies special biological powers. For example, a potion of fireflies and wild boar's eyes are believed to endow night vision, and special shoes smeared with the fat from roasted pregnant camels or the ashes of cremated children and bird sperm are supposed to allow soldiers to walk for hundreds of miles without fatigue. The scientists are also studying Kautilya's formulas for powders from nefarious substances that were intended to cause madness, blindness, or death in one's adversaries.

   The Indian military experiments might be dismissed as useless experiments with magic. ye the Hindu scientists are not alone in the search for unusual biochemical agents to give armies special biological powers. In 2002, for example, military scientists funded by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) of the U.S. Defense Department initiated a search for special stimulants and agents based on "magical genes in mice and fruit-flies" that would eliminate the need for sleep in American soldiers."

Adrienne Mayor

Greek Fire, Poison Arrows & Scorpion Bombs: Biological and Chemical Warfare in the Ancient World

"It is not a question of if; it is a question of when. It is also a question of what magnitude it would be."

Kyle Olson (Formerly of the Chemical and Biological Arms Control Institute)

"Two important phenomena, of the same nature yet opposed to one another, and which so far have caught the attention of no one, are stirring in Asiatic Turkey: they are the reawakening of the Arab nation and the latent effort of the Jews to reconstitute on a very grand scale the ancient monarch of Israel. These two movements are destined to fight one another continually, until one of them defeats the other. Upon the final out-come of this struggle between two peoples representing, two opposing principles will depend the fate of the world."

Negib Azoury

War: The reawakening of the Arab Nation

"What we are seeing now, is the growth of Ethnic rivalries. Ethnic rivalries are replacing politically motivated terrorism as the biggest threat to business. We are seeing it in every region of the world."

Benjamin Weiner

"Some people saw it as a war between acronyms, all of which had long ago lost their meaning. The Nigerians and their allies came to be known simply as "Ecomog," which hardly anybody remembered stood for the Economic Community of West African States Cease-Fire Monitoring Group. Taylor's group was called the NPFL, the National Patriotic Front of Liberia. There were plenty of others, like the perversely named Liberian Peace Council, one of the war's most wicked participants."

Mark fritz

Lost on earth: nomads of the New World

"There aren’t any good, brave causes left. If the big bang does come, and we all get killed off, it won’t be in aid of the old fashioned, grand design. It’ll just be for the Brave New Nothing-very-much-thank-you. About as pointless and unglorious as stepping in front of a bus."

John Osborne

"Future battles could be waged with genetically engineered organisms, such as rodents, whose minds are controlled by computer chips engineered with living brain cells….The research called Hippocampal Neuron Patterning, grows live neurons on computer chips.

This technology that alters neurons could potentially be used on people to create zombie armies",

 Lawrence Korb, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution said."

"There are subliminal and brainwashing techniques by which the subconscious of the individual is invaded and his thoughts of personality influenced without his consent. These influences can be smuggled in past the customs of the senses. Methods of which I am aware include ultrasonic waves. These are inaudible to the conscious sense, like the ‘silent’ dog-whistler. Similarly subliminal messages can be concealed in films or television programs. Of course, such means are banned, but anyone sufficiently ingenious, or some central authority seeking to indoctrinate, could succeed.

Experiments have also demonstrated that it is possible to hypnotize persons with television and radio."

U.S. Senate Hearing (Surveillance Technology)

"Information warfare-attacks on complex information-management systems and infrastructures-is a growing threat to world security and could severely disrupt flows of electric power, money, air traffic, etc. Unlike traditional weapons, information-based techniques don’t require a lot of money or support from a large nations; a terrorist group or a small nation could use them.

"Advances in ‘overhead’ sensors-satellites and UAVs (Unmanned Aerospace Vehicles) included – will create opportunities not only to detect targets but to track them as they move. In General Fogelman’s view "This is a kind of revolution in warfare."

Jane’s Defense Weekly

"Today, we are at war on several fronts. The fights against terrorism, organized crime, economic espionage and weapons proliferation are permanent conflicts that are likely to confront us through the next century. A the same time, some of the old tensions remain, with ethnic conflicts in Bosnia and Somalia reminding, the revolutionaries and the traditionalists that wars will continue however many chips and computers may populate the world.

What I also learned was that a new generation of visionaries has sprung up, enabled by the computer revolution. They predict a very different world that will emerge from the current uncertainty. It will be a place where wars of every type will be fought not by soldiers confronting soldiers but by new warriors engaging in the infosphere, the virtual world where commerce, conversation and connectivity will all occur, In those wars, new weapons will be needed and real power will accrue o the nation or group that understand the use of this new technology.

In this new world, the soldier will be the young geek in uniform who can insert a virus into Teheran’s electricity supply to plunge the city into darkness. His civilian equivalent will be able to read every e-mail, crash any office computer anywhere in the world, invade networks and destroy systems, all from thousands of miles away. The bank account of the drug baron or organized criminal located in an apparently safe offshore haven will be an open book."

James Adams

The Next World War

"It was disturbing also to learn that the countries that have the most effective information warfare capabilities are also the most vulnerable to attack. Uniquely in the history of the world, a single individual armed with just a computer and a modem can literally hold America ransom."

Ibid

"….Tomorrow’s soldier will go to war with tiny aircraft in his backpack that eh will be able to fly instead of him to smell, see and hear what lies over the hill or inside the next building."

Ibid

"For instance, one inventor alleges that the military has a black project under way that will result in a weapon that will send its victims to sleep; in effect it will stun them. Eldon Byrd headed the Marine Corps non-Lethal Electromagnetic Weapons study between 1980 and 1983 experimenting with extremely low-frequency electromagnetic radiation. He found he could actually manipulate the brain to produce behavior altering chemicals. Byrd said that these waves would send test animals to sleep or provoke their brains to produce histamines, which in Humans would produce instant feelings of sickness and flu. The program was closed down early because, Byrd said, it was too successful. "The work was really outstanding," he said. He suspects the project went black and was fully developed. He cites the emergence in 1995 of a project that called for using acoustics, microwaves and brainwave manipulation to send the enemy to sleep as evidence that his work was removed from view and thrived undercover."

Ibid

"Crusades 2000 has already begun. It will put Islamic nations against the West. We can’t say how long it will last or how many nations may stumble their way into battle. But we know the consequences will be grim…..

Gerald Celente

Trends 2000

"God grant we may not have a European war thrust upon us, and for such a stupid reason too, no I don’t mean stupid, but to have to go to war on account of tiresome Serbia beggars belief."

Mary. Wife of George V (Letter 28,July 1914)

"If there is another war in Europe, it will come out of some damned silly thing in the Balkans."

Prince Otto Von Bismarck (1875-1898)

"The next real war we fight is likely to be on American soil."

William S. Lind

"The United States, Europe, Russia and India have thus become engaged in a truly global struggle against China, Japan, and most of Islam. How would such a war end?

Samuel P. Huntington

The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order

"I worry about all this research on virulence. It’s only a matter of months-years, at most-before people nail down the genes for virulence and airborne transmission in influenza, Ebola, Lassa, you name it. And then any crackpot with a few thousand dollars worth of equipment and a college biology education under his belt could manufacture bugs that would make Ebola look like a walk around the park."

Karl Johnson (of the CDC)

"It can easily be done. This is not science fiction."

A.N. Mukhopaday (University in India)

Dark Tangent: A rucksack full of car batteries, a microcapacitor and a directional antenna….You could park in a car and walk away. It’s a poor man’s nuke….There are only three or four people who know how to build them….if you experiment wrong, you’ve micro waved yourself.

Dune: Yeah, this is a high-energy device. You could be a half mile away and take out Oracle (computers)

Dark Tangent: one pulse (would wipe out Oracle). It dumps 2 million watts in one-thousandth of a second.

Dune: If we had a Cessna and a HERF gun, you could fly over Silicon Valley and –Pow!-there goes Sun Microsystems-Pow!-there goes Intel!

(conversation between some of America’s top hackers and Forbes ASAP)

read: "Columbia: Our Next Vietnam? By Alexander Cockburn…..www.creators.com

"The cries of another Vietnam are in the air-so much so that the State Department has a link on its web site entitled "Why Columbia is Not the ‘Next Vietnam’.

It’s not Vietnam. Maybe Lebanon. America is entering a land of shifting alliances, murky allies, unseen and deadly enemies. Violence can come from an infinite number of angles. And, while ideology is important, drug money rules.

During my month in Columbia, I meet with presidential advisers, peasants, rebels and women vying to be the next Miss Colombia. Coffee is shared in rural hovels and posh Bogotá penthouses. I see begging mothers with children, and paramilitaries plotting more terror. From forlorn grave differs to aloof aristocrats, I talk with more than a hundred Columbians. The poor and the rich agree on only two things: American aid will make an unspeakably horrible situation even worse. And Americans will die here."

Stephen Rodrick "Cocaine Chaos" (Last George magazine)

read: "The Demon in the Freezer"….How smallpox, a disease officially eradicated twenty years ago, became the biggest bioterrorist threat we now face. By Richard Preston

New Yorker,July 12,1999

"Russia is the most unpredictable country in the world right now, and extremist movements are unpredictable by their nature"

Revaz Adamia (defense committee chairman)

"They say we're cowards-let them. We won't just sit here in Chechnya and be exterminated. I warned that we would fight in Russia and there are a lot more targets. We have radioactive elements, biological weapons that Russia left us. We could put biological weapons in Yekaterinburg and let them all get sick. To put uranium in Moscow would require one person. One of our people gets killed and a city dies with him....If someone spits at you in the face for half a year, wouldn't you spit back just once? That's what we did and we'll do it again."

-Shamil Baseyev (in his mountain hideout after raiding Budennovsk

See: "Pipeline Politics and Chechnya" by Ian Bremmer and Tom Corcoran…The Christian Science Monitor Mon , Jan 24,2000

Book: "Allah's Mountains: The Battle for Chechnya" by Sebastian Smith

See: "Save the Caucasus from Balkan-like crisis" by Kenneth Weisbrode Christian Science Monitor….Jan 24,2000

See: "China Fires off Warning To Taiwan Voters" by Elisabeth Rosenthal…NYT Mar 16,2000

"Not long ago in Washington, seventeen of Russia’s most senior military officers were asked how they rated the chances of "nuclear migration" to a Middle Eastern country. In other words, on a scale from one to ten, how likely was it that some country in the Middle East would soon come up with the technological know-how and the source materials to build a nuclear device. All seventeen said, "Ten"

Jeffrey Robinson

The Merger

Book: "The Coming Conflict With China" by Richard Bernstein & Ross Munro

Book: "WAR AT THE TOP OF THE WORLD,REVISED:The Struggle for Afghanistan, Kashmir and Tibet" by Eric S. Margolis

Book: "Secret Agents: The Menace of Emerging Infections" by Madeline Drexler

Book: "The New Face of War: How War will be Fought in the 21st Century" by Bruce Berkowitz

Book: "The Next War Zone: Confronting the Global Threat of Cyberterrorism" by James F. Dunnigan

Book: "Corporate Warriors: The Rise of the Privatized Military Industry" by P.W. Singer

Book: "Germs: Biological Weapons and America's Secret War." by Judith Miller

Book: "The Man Who Warned America: The Life and Death of John O'Neill, the FBI's Embattled Counter terror Warrior." by Murray Weiss

Book: "The New Face of War: How War Will Be Fought in the 21st Century" by Bruce Berkowitz

Book: "Allah's Mountains: The Battle for Chechnya" by Sebastian Smith